Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community.

Deep learning (DL)-based general circulation models (GCMs) are emerging as fast simulators, yet their ability to replicate extreme events outside their training range remains unknown. Here, we evaluate two such models -- the hybrid Neural General Circulation Model (NGCM) and purely data-driven Deep Learning Earth System Model (DL\textit{ESy}M) -- against a conventional high-resolution land-atmosphere model (HiRAM) in simulating land heatwaves and coldwaves. All models are forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice over 1900-2020, focusing on the out-of-sample early-20th-century period (1900-1960). Both DL models generalize successfully to unseen climate conditions, broadly reproducing the frequency and spatial patterns of heatwave and cold wave events during 1900-1960 with skill comparable to HiRAM. An exception is over portions of North Asia and North America, where all models perform poorly during 1940-1960. Due to excessive temperature autocorrelation, DL\textit{ESy}M tends to overestimate heatwave and cold wave frequencies, whereas the physics-DL hybrid NGCM exhibits persistence more similar to HiRAM.

Computer models are indispensable tools for understanding the Earth system. While high-resolution operational models have achieved many successes, they exhibit persistent biases, particularly in simulating extreme events and statistical distributions. In contrast, coarse-grained idealized models isolate fundamental processes and can be precisely calibrated to excel in characterizing specific dynamical and statistical features. However, different models remain siloed by disciplinary boundaries. By leveraging the complementary strengths of models of varying complexity, we develop an explainable AI framework for Earth system emulators. It bridges the model hierarchy through a reconfigured latent data assimilation technique, uniquely suited to exploit the sparse output from the idealized models. The resulting bridging model inherits the high resolution and comprehensive variables of operational models while achieving global accuracy enhancements through targeted improvements from idealized models. Crucially, the mechanism of AI provides a clear rationale for these advancements, moving beyond black-box correction to physically insightful understanding in a computationally efficient framework that enables effective physics-assisted digital twins and uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate its power by significantly correcting biases in CMIP6 simulations of El Niño spatiotemporal patterns, leveraging statistically accurate idealized models. This work also highlights the importance of pushing idealized model development and advancing communication between modeling communities.

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community.

Accurately predicting sea-surface temperature weeks to months into the future is an important step toward long term weather forecasting. Standard atmosphere-ocean coupled numerical models provide accurate sea-surface forecasts on the scale of a few days to a few weeks, but many important weather systems require greater foresight. In this paper we propose machine-learning approaches sea-surface temperature forecasting that are accurate on the scale of dozens of weeks. Our approach is based in Koopman operator theory, a useful tool for dynamical systems modelling. With this approach, we predict sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico up to 180 days into the future based on a present image of thermal conditions and three years of historical training data. We evaluate the combination of a basic Koopman method with a convolutional autoencoder, and a newly proposed "consistent Koopman" method, in various permutations. We show that the Koopman approach consistently outperforms baselines, and we discuss the utility of our additional assumptions and methods in this sea-surface temperature domain.

The sea surface temperature (SST), a key environmental parameter, is crucial to optimizing production planning, making its accurate prediction a vital research topic. However, the inherent nonlinearity of the marine dynamic system presents significant challenges. Current forecasting methods mainly include physics-based numerical simulations and data-driven machine learning approaches. The former, while describing SST evolution through differential equations, suffers from high computational complexity and limited applicability, whereas the latter, despite its computational benefits, requires large datasets and faces interpretability challenges. This study presents a prediction framework based solely on data-driven techniques. Using phase space reconstruction, we construct initial-delay attractor pairs with a mathematical homeomorphism and design a Spatio-Temporal Fusion Mapping (STFM) to uncover their intrinsic connections. Unlike conventional models, our method captures SST dynamics efficiently through phase space reconstruction and achieves high prediction accuracy with minimal training data in comparative tests

The challenge focused on the data-driven predictability of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a key factor in climate forecasting, ecosystem management, fisheries management, and climate change monitoring. The challenge involved forecasting SST anomalies (SSTAs) three months in advance using historical data and included a special task of predicting SSTAs nine months ahead for the Baltic Sea. Participants utilized various machine learning approaches to tackle the task, leveraging data from ERA5. This paper discusses the methodologies employed, the results obtained, and the lessons learned, offering insights into the future of climate-related predictive modeling.

Predicting Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region is crucial for the effective management of its fragile ecosystems. This study provides a rigorous comparative analysis of several machine learning techniques to identify the most effective method for SST prediction in this area. We evaluate the performance of ridge regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms. Our results reveal that while LASSO and ridge regression perform well, Random Forest and XGBoost significantly outperform them in terms of predictive accuracy, as evidenced by lower Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Prediction Error (RMSPE). Additionally, XGBoost demonstrated superior performance in minimizing Kullback- Leibler Divergence (KLD), indicating a closer alignment of predicted probability distributions with actual observations. These findings highlight the efficacy of using ensemble methods, particularly XGBoost, for predicting sea surface temperatures, making them valuable tools for climatological and environmental modeling.